Tuesday, June 14, 2011

The Direction of the Franchise

Everybody's got plans... until they get hit.
-Mike Tyson

When Stan Van Gundy joined the Orlando Magic in June of 2007 he devised a plan to build around Dwight Howard. This plan revolved around ball movement, defense, and three point shooting. His philosophy was that the three point shooters would spread the defense and exploit double teams. If the defense wanted to double Dwight, the ball movement of the Magic would punish the opposition by hitting open threes. If teams refused to double team Dwight, he would punish them in the paint.

During the summer of 2007 free agency period (along with early season trades), the Magic added Rashard Lewis, Mo Evans, Brian Cook, and Marcin Gortat. Shooting Guard Keith Bogans also became a prominent part of the rotation. The Magic played a “small” lineup of Dwight at center, Lewis at power forward, Hedo at small forward, either Evans or Bogans at shooting guard, and Nelson at point. The success was immediately apparent as the team exploded, winning 14 of their first 17 games to start the season. Their final record was 52-30, good enough for first place in the southeast division and a short trip into the second round.


Although the team was “hit” hard in the second round by the Detroit Pistons (4-1 series that was never really competitive), management never deviated from the plan to surround Dwight with defense and spread the floor with shooters. New additions of Courtney Lee, Mickael Pietrus, Tony Battie, and Anthony Johnson all fit into the team's MO. Lee and Pietrus were athletic players who bought into Van Gundy's system and excelled at defending the opposition's top wings. Tony Battie was able to play alongside Dwight without clogging the lane and back up the center position as well. His mid-range game allowed the Magic to spread the floor on offense without giving up size. The result was arguably the franchise's most successful season ever. The team won 59 games and it's first NBA Finals game in franchise history. They were “hit” hard by the Lakers in the Finals and that's when management began deviating from the plan.

The roster transformed from a group of guys who all filled a well defined role, played hard on both ends of the floor, were efficient shooters, and had personalities that weren't bigger than the team in 2009 to a much different group in 2011. The 2010-2011 roster was defined by players who wanted to operate outside of the team structure set by Stan Van Gundy. The team focused on offense at the expense of the defensive side of the floor, despite poor efficiency on either end. The team's offense wasn't so much a strength as it was a mind set (the team wasn't better off by focusing on offense, it's just what the players wanted). Instead of a cohesive unit of players with a well defined role the team was an erratic group of individuals who couldn't be counted on in a game to game basis. Dwight was the only constant (as he has been his entire career). The result was a major step backwards in the growth of the team and a frustrating first round exit.

The franchise is sitting at a fork in the road. Their short term goals are all based around resigning Dwight Howard during July of 2012. They have two directions they can take in achieving this goal. The first direction is to burn the '11-'12 season and rebuild. They do whatever it takes to acquire draft picks and expiring contracts in order to benefit from an excellent draft and free agent class. This is the most logical direction to take as it would allow the team to get younger and significantly more talented in an extremely short amount of time (relative to how long it usually takes for a team to rebuild). They could give up on their championship dreams for a season (or two, most likely) in order to open a window for a championship for the following 5 or 6 years. The problem with this path originates from Dwight Howard. He wants to win now and doesn't want to waste a year of his prime. If he's not on board with this strategy then it's going to push him out of Orlando. The second path is to try and acquire a solid 7 or 8 man rotation that could get Orlando back into championship contention if only for one season. This would mean mortgaging future drafts and young assets in order to acquire the most talent possible. There have been signs that point to the team taking this path. Names being thrown around in rumors are Carlos Boozer, Nicolas Batum, Brandon Roy, OJ Mayo, JR Smith, Tayshawn Prince, Caron Butler, Stephen Jackson, Josh Smith, and many more. Between now and July 1st is important for improvement as nobody knows how the new collective bargaining agreement could change the structure of player salaries and the ability to make trades or sign players.

Magic fans need to hope Otis Smith is able to acquire essentially a whole new rotation of players who can play as a cohesive unit that can cover its weaknesses and succeed in a variety of ways (players who can absorb hits from the other team and stick with the game plan). The Magic need players who can score, defend the perimeter, and are above average in their athleticism. Everyone on the roster is available for trades. Well, everyone except for Dwight Howard. Once again he is the only constant on this team, but for how long?


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